Deloitte has adjusted its forecast for India’s economic growth in the last fiscal year, now projecting a range of 7.6 to 7.8 percent, compared to the previously estimated range of 6.9 to 7.2 percent for the 2023-24 fiscal year. This upward revision reflects a more optimistic outlook for the country’s economic performance. In its India Economic Outlook Report, Deloitte highlights the rapid expansion of the middle-income class, attributing it to increased purchasing power and a growing demand for premium luxury goods and services. The report underscores the expectation that by 2030/31, one in every two households will belong to the middle-to-high-income segments, up from the current ratio of one in four households. This trend is anticipated to further stimulate overall private consumer expenditure growth.
Looking ahead, Deloitte estimates India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year at 6.6 percent, bolstered by factors such as consumption expenditure, exports rebound, and capital flows. The report also forecasts a GDP growth of approximately 6.75 percent for the subsequent fiscal year. Deloitte’s quarterly update to its economic outlook attributes the anticipated global economic recovery in 2025 to the resolution of major election uncertainties and potential rate cuts by central banks in the West. India is expected to benefit from improved capital flows and an upturn in exports amidst this synchronized global rebound.
Despite the positive economic momentum, Deloitte acknowledges concerns regarding inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, which may contribute to higher food and fuel prices. However, the prediction of above-normal monsoon rainfall offers a silver lining, potentially alleviating pressure on food prices by positively impacting agricultural output. Overall, inflation is expected to remain above the Reserve Bank of India’s target level of 4 percent over the forecast period due to robust economic activity.
